The first frosts are coming! In the coming days the climate in our country will advance towards a general cooling, to the point that, near the weekend, temperatures will drop several degrees, until reaching the zero threshold.
After a decidedly mild period, the first signs of change will be felt already on Thursday, November 16: the high pressure, which is currently widespread in our country, will in fact migrate northwards, thus allowing the descent of a unstable cold air front connected to a cyclonic vortex located in the northernmost sectors of the Old Continent. This cold front will be felt especially from Friday, November 17.
Drop in temperatures and strong winds
The target of the cold front will be the Balkan area, where the bad weather will be more pronounced; The repercussions in our country will be felt above all in terms of temperatures AND wind. strong currents of Mistral They will blow on the Tyrrhenian side, moderate. bora will sweep the upper Adriatic, while the grecal will expire in the rest of the Adriatic sectors, giving life to a Fall in maximum temperatures throughout the country.But especially on the Adriatic side and in the south, where the unstable front will also cause a rapid phase of bad weather.
The strong winds will take care of that. to accentuate the sensation of cold, due to the phenomenon known as Shaking chills o Wind chill rate: When the wind blows during a cold day, it accelerates the removal of heat from the body’s surface, causing the perceived temperature to be lower than the actual temperature.
The first frosts arrive
The drop in temperatures will not stop here. Saturday November 18 A new decrease in minimum values will be felt, due to the clear sky that will favor a rapid dispersion of heat towards the free atmosphere. The Northern regions and the internal valleys of the Center will be particularly affected, so much so Thermometers could drop to values close to or even below zero.causing the formation of the first frosts not only in the hills, but also in the plains. The areas most at risk will be rural areas or open countryside, such as the Po Valley, where the influence of the heat islands present in the most urbanized areas is less.
We are experiencing an almost summer phase in our country, and I confirm the current and ‘proverbial’ Summer of San Martino: the problem is that the Summer of San Martino occurs throughout the year. All of the last few months have broken records and it is most likely that 2023 will become the hottest year in global history, surpassing even 2016. In short, this heat is not normal!
What is causing all this heat?
For decades, heat has been mainly associated with global warming caused by the use of fossil fuels: this year, as in 2016, since May we have entered an exceptional phase of El Niño, a meteorological phenomenon associated with the anomalous warming of the waters of the Eastern Pacific. Just like in 2016, we could have a Super El Niño in the coming weeks with a sea temperature difference of more than 2°C: all this heat would impact the end of 2023, pushing the year towards record heat, even in Italy .
Has the weather gone crazy?
The weather has changed, it hasn’t gone completely crazy yet and it tries to maintain an apparent calm; Man, however, from the industrial revolution onwards, has tried by all means to modify the planet.
Are we still in time to reverse the trend?
In part, yes, there are already countries that base almost 100% of their energy needs on renewable resources, water, sun and wind. If we continue burning fossil fuels, we will create an increasingly hot planet: within a few years, it will be normal to reach 45°C in the shade in summer, even in the main Italian cities; and we have already reached isolated peaks of around 49°C. These are numbers that in 1900 would have been associated with a carnival joke, but are instead reality.
What is expected soon?
This current anomalous phase will probably continue until the end of the year, interspersed with some “less hot” fast passages in a, however, distorted context.
In fact, in the coming days there will also be temperatures between 5 and 8°C higher than the averages for the period: only between Friday the 17th and the first part of Saturday will we experience a very short and more typical autumn phase. If it is not enough, the heat will continue with us, distorting the habits and customs of humans, but above all the existence of fauna and flora. Even in the coming months we are destined to experience anomalous phases, and each year that begins is expected to be warmer than the previous one.
How do climate scientists define this situation?
Climatologists define this trend with a symbolic phrase: “next year will be the hottest in the history of the planet” and in fact records are constantly being broken. We remember that, as far as Italy is concerned, 2022 was the hottest year since 1800, when records began: at this time we too are heading towards an even more extreme 2023.
What are the forecasts for Italy?
Until Thursday the 16th we will continue living the San Martino summer with lots of sun, some more clouds in the Tyrrhenian Sea and some wind. Friday the 17th, an unfortunate day for the superstitious, could confirm the disturbed transition expected in the Center-South with some rain and more wind.
Starting this weekend, respecting the climatic trend, we should once again see the sun and anomalous heat in much of the country: be careful, however, due to the clear sky, which will favor the dispersion of heat, during the weekend The nights will be quite cold, especially in the north, where thermometers will get very close to zero and where the first frosts of the season are not even ruled out, even in the plains.