The weather outlook for October 2023 presents us with a series of atypical weather phenomena that seem to contradict the usual characteristics of our Italian climate. Seasonal forecasts had anticipated an increase in precipitation, but what we are experiencing is something very different. We are before a climatic phenomenon that seems more common in semi-arid tropical regions than in our Italian climate. In this article, we will analyze the current situation, future predictions and the consequences of this unusual weather trend.
An unusual rain
A concentrated rain
October is currently following an unconventional weather trajectory. The forecasts had indicated an increase in rainfall compared to the seasonal average, but the reality is very different. It rains, but it is scarce or distributed irregularly. Instead of constant rain, it appears we are experiencing a series of severe storms concentrated in a few days, with heavy rain.
A clear example of this situation occurred recently, when storms and torrential rain occurred in the northern Apennines and northeastern Alps on Tuesday, October 24. These events have caused the flooding of rivers and streams that, until recently, were completely dry, especially in Emilia Romagna. This type of precipitation is typical of semiarid tropical regions, where precipitation can be intense but sporadic.
The rain regime is practically tropical.
The semi-arid tropical rainfall regime is characterized by moderate but highly irregular rainfall. This is a distinctive feature of the semi-arid regime. Inequality refers to the fact that the amount and frequency of rainfall can vary greatly from year to year. In some years, the region may receive near or above average rainfall, while in others it may experience periods of drought. . This irregularity may be due to various factors, including climatic phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña. Italy is primarily subject to variations in the jet stream and other large-scale atmospheric patterns.
Above average temperatures
In addition to the rain, another notable aspect of this month of October is the temperature, which although it has decreased compared to a few weeks ago, continues to remain above average. A brief comparison with temperatures from about two weeks ago shows that current values are more than 10°C higher. The season on the calendar might say the opposite, but temperatures seem to resist this climate transition. It is not normal to go to the beach, not even in the South, in October, since in the past they have been exceptions and not the rule: we lose a fundamental autumn month.
Long-term forecasts
Weather projections for November
In our quest to better understand the current and future situation, we consulted various mathematical weather forecast models. We focus above all on the weather conditions expected for the month of November. However, it is important to emphasize that these are long-term forecasts, often characterized by a certain uncertainty.
Projections indicate that, in the coming weeks and two weeks from now, we could see heavy rain in Italy. This is because important ocean currents will cross the Italian peninsula, bringing with them atmospheric disturbances and, therefore, precipitation. These precipitations will be concentrated mainly in areas exposed to currents coming from the west. As a result, we can expect a significant amount of rain in the Tyrrhenian regions, western Sardinia, northern Sicily and much of northern Italy. However, the flat areas of Piedmont and the vast plains of Lombardy will likely receive less precipitation due to rain shadowing.
The unknown
However, it should be noted that these long-range forecasts are based on mathematical models and may not accurately reflect actual conditions. It is possible that low pressures will form in places other than those predicted by the models, which will cause heavy rains in areas where they were not expected.
In summary, despite projections promising improved rainfall, it is still possible that rainfall will continue to be irregular and poorly distributed in the coming weeks and also in the month of November. However, it appears that some regions of Italy may enjoy more rainfall than in October.
The snow will appear
Snow in the Alps
Finally, let’s take a look at the snow situation. With the arrival of November we will begin to see snow even at not particularly high altitudes in the Alps, a trend that had already started early. It is interesting to note that at the end of August there was snowfall at altitudes lower than the current ones, also whitening the alpine ski resorts in the northwest. This event represented a case of extreme weather, characterized by a sharp drop in temperatures of more than 30 degrees in just two days.
Conclusions
October 2023 brings with it a series of unusual weather events for Italy. Precipitation is scarce and is concentrated in intense storms, while temperatures remain above average. Long-term forecasts indicate the possibility of heavier rainfall in the coming weeks, but it is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts with some uncertainty. Meanwhile, snow will begin to make an appearance in the Alps in anticipation of the arrival of winter. The weather situation reminds us how important it is to continue monitoring and understanding the complex dynamics of our climate, which appears to be increasingly influenced by unpredictable changes.
