The return of the anticyclone during the third decade of January is already a consolidated reality, and not only Italy will benefit from these more stable and mild days, but also all of central and western Europe. The meteorological stability is the direct result of a revitalization of the polar vortex, which could however suffer new disturbances at the end of January.
This aspect is not negligible, since it could cause sudden climate changes in Europe and our peninsula in a short time. Currently, all forecasting centers agree on a possible weakening of the polar vortex at the end of January, which would favor the rise of subtropical anticyclones towards subpolar latitudes. In particular, the Azores anticyclone could move north around January 27 or 28, heading towards Britain or Scandinavia and creating a effective anticyclonic barrier which could facilitate the descent of cold air from Eastern Europe towards Italy.
Cold and snow at the end of January?
This could translate into a potential cold and snow wave for Italy, affecting mainly the Adriatic and southern regions, with snow reaching the plains and along the coasts. However, for an event of this magnitude to occur, several elements need to align perfectly, and predicting this well in advance is extremely difficult.
Polar vortex in crisis again at the end of the month?
However, there is a considerable chance, as the polar vortex will likely weaken again and the cold buildup over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia in recent weeks could contribute to a cold wave toward our region. Traditionally, the end of January and the month of February are the periods in which Italy is most exposed to the cold coming from the east, as demonstrated by numerous cases in recent decades.
Forecast for the days of Merla.
The latest updates from the forecast centers point to the arrival of cold during the days of Merla, which traditionally represent the coldest days of the year. Therefore, we could go from almost spring-like weather, such as that expected from January 22 to 27, to decidedly colder and wintry weather, with potential low-altitude snowfall towards the end of the month.