Time: AUGUST, the new Seasonal Forecasts for HOLIDAYS have just arrived; updates
Season projections for AugustWhat will the month of August be like? The updated projections of the European Center for the key days of the holidays of many Italians have just arrived.
First a necessary premise. As usual, to provide a long-term projection we need to analyze the calls seasonal forecasta series of indices (solar, atmospheric, oceanic and others) and possible teleconnections (“if this happens in this part of the planet, then statistically this will happen after a while in that other part of the planet…”).
Once decidedly unreliable and a mere object of study and interest to the curious and enthusiastic, seasonal predictions have become a valid tool for scientific forecasting, with decisive contributions to longer-term climate assessment.
In Europe, the European Center is a leader in the sector, with a fresh new headquarters in Italy, in Bologna.
Well, according to the latest updates, by August we wait temperatures well above average between +1 and +3°C over most of Italy.
Analyzing the following map, the thermal anomaly in practically all of southern Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basin, is immediately striking, probably due to greater interference from the infamous African anticyclone. This means that you can expect new stronger and more persistent heat waves also in our country between the end of the first ten days and the entire second part of the month.Temperatures above the climatic average in August (source: ECMWF)This is, therefore, a first concern for the coming weeks, also in line with that of recent years, during which the problem of climate change has become increasingly evident and urgent, even in our country. To make the heat even more unbearable are the high levels of humidity (embarrassment) and the reason is all geographical: in fact, the hot air masses that arrive from the African continent are enriched in humidity as they pass through our seas and this will affect the humidity indicesprovoking physical discomfort.
What’s new in the latest update, However, it is not about the temperatures, but about the more than concrete risk of strong and sudden storms. The second map that we offer, always from the european center, highlights a excess rain right in Italy, in particular in the northern plains and in the Tyrrhenian regions.Rainfall above the climatic average in August (source: ECMWF)Among the effects of this changing climate (towards the heat) the risk of extreme weather events. In fact, with heat, the potential energy involved also increases and, above all, thermal contrasts are especially enhanced, creating a lethal mix for the development of impressive storm Cells, even up to 10/15 km high.
It often happens that after a heat wave, large amounts of moisture and heat stagnate in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Subsequently, with the first cool and unstable gust at high altitude (usually downhill from northern Europe), convective movements (rising of hot air) favor the genesis of violent storms, with high risk of hail and in some cases, fortunately rarer, even of tornadoes