Weather: AUGUST, too hot or raining for the holidays? We reveal all the shades of summer 2023
Season projections for AugustAn old proverb says: “d’Agosto, my wife, I don’t know you“.
It is a common saying in many areas of Italy and Europe. In essence, the ancients advised husbands not to overdo it and not get too tired in the hot period.
So, a heat warning for the next month of summer vacation as well? To understand if the African anticyclone will really dictate the law over our country throughout the summer or if we will have to deal with frequent rains and hailstorms, as usual, we must analyze the so-called seasonal forecasta series of indices (solar, atmospheric, oceanic and others) and possible teleconnections (“if this happens in this part of the planet, then statistically this will happen after a while in that other part of the planet…”).
Once decidedly unreliable and a mere object of study and interest to the curious and enthusiastic, seasonal predictions have become a valid tool for scientific forecasting, with decisive contributions to longer-term climate assessment.
In Europe, the European Center is a leader in the sector, with a fresh new headquarters in Italy, in Bologna.
There second half of july It still promises to be very hot, with scorching values from north to south, however our attention moves to next month: based on the latest updates, also for August we wait temperatures well above average between +1 and +3°C over most of Italy.
Analyzing the following map, the thermal anomaly in practically all of southern Europe is immediately apparent, particularly in the Mediterranean basin due to the constant presence of the infamous African anticyclone. This means that you can expect new stronger and more persistent heat waves also in our country between the end of the first ten days and the entire second part of the month.
Temperatures above the climatic average in August (source: ECMWF)Therefore, it is correct to speak of “subtropical climate since the incoming air masses come directly from tropical latitudes, that is, from the heart of the Sahara desert”. It is as if the imaginary line of African heat had increased in latitude, also covering a large part of southern Europe; in short, behold served one of the effects of ongoing climate change.
The high levels of humidity (steamy) will make the heat even more unbearable and the reason is entirely geographical: in fact, the hot air masses that arrive from the African continent are enriched in humidity as they pass through our seas and this will affect the humidity indicesprovoking physical discomfort.
What’s new in the latest update, However, it is not just about the temperatures, but about the more than concrete risk of strong and sudden storms. The second map that we offer, always from the european center, highlights a excess rain right in Italy, in particular in the northern plains and in the Tyrrhenian regions.
Rainfall above the climatic average in August (source: ECMWF)Among the effects of this changing climate (towards the heat) the risk of extreme weather events. In fact, with heat, the potential energy involved also increases and, above all, thermal contrasts are especially enhanced, creating a lethal mix for the development of impressive storm Cells, even up to 10/15 km high.
It often happens that after a heat wave, large amounts of moisture and heat stagnate in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Subsequently, with the first cool and unstable gust at high altitude (usually downhill from northern Europe), convective movements (rising of hot air) favor the genesis of violent storms, with high risk of hail and in some cases, fortunately rarer, even of tornadoes
