The month of May was very busy and full of political and non-political events: by the works decree approved on May 1, the confrontation between the government and the opposition on institutional reforms with special attention to the issue of presidentialism and the position of prime minister; from the appointments of some senior institutional managers to those of investee companies, including Rai; of the administrative elections that involved close to six and a half million voters, to tensions with France after the declarations of the transalpine interior minister on the management of migratory flows by our executive; from the visit of the Ukrainian president Zelensky to Italy, to international summits (the Council of Europe in Reykjavik and the G7 in Japan), to end the dramatic situation in Emilia-RomagnaFollowing the deluge It is natural to wonder What impact have all these events had on the national political scene?also following the heated debate and controversies that some of them have raised.
Good, today’s poll showswith few exceptions, a substantial stability in the opinions of Italians compared to April, from the evaluations onL‘government and prime minister action that register a increase in both positive reviews (two points) and negative (one point for the executive, two for the prime minister), leaving the approval rating of both unchanged, which stands at 51 and 53 respectively. In fact, a substantial polarization of opinions is confirmedi and it is probable that the density of the events of the month has determined in the reactions of the citizens a multiplicity of compensatory effects as in a kind of “zero sum” game.
Regarding voting guidelinesthe most significant data is represented by 1.5 point decrease from the M5S that, with 15% of the votes, for the first time it is estimated at lower values than the result obtained in last year’s Policies; in today’s poll we tested separately Action and Italy alive after the tensions between the two political forces whose outcome, moreover, in view of next year’s European elections is not easy to decipher. The estimates of the two parties show a difference of only half a point, with 3.5% Action and 3% IV. In general, there are changes of a few decimal places compared to a month ago: FDI remains in first place with 29.6% reversing the downward trend registered in the two previous months; the Democratic Party is confirmed in second place with 20.4% (-0.3%), followed by the M5S, by the Lega (8.2%) and Forza Italia (7.7%). The proportion of abstentionists and undecided is also stable and continues to be considerable (39.5%). Based on these estimates, the center-right clearly prevails over the center-left (46.5% compared to 25.7%) and for now, taking into account that the next electoral term is represented by the European elections that contemplate the proportional method (meaning “all against all”), other coalition hypotheses (centre-left and M5S or the revival of the “broad field”), although more competitive with the center-right, are entirely premature.
Finally, the approval of the leaders: in the first place there is a trio represented by Conte, Berlusconi and Schlein, with an approval rating of 31. The Forza Italia frontman, who recently returned from a lengthy hospitalization, posted a 10-point growth from October last year, when he hit his nadir in popularity. La secretaria dem marks the second consecutive decline that is partly due to her increased notoriety (which also sees the proportion of those who do not appreciate her grow), partly to the choice of positioning and of the political agenda of the Democratic Party that have generated tensions within the party. They are followed in the ranking by Salvini, stable at 29, and further behind by Lupi (21), Fratoianni (20) and Bonelli (19), then Calenda (17), who registered the most significant drop, and Renzi (14). Therefore, the month of May closes in the name of stability, despite everything that has happened. With all due respect to fans of all factions.
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